You can get surprisingly close to a fair tanker value in half an hour using only public information. The trick is to anchor price from three angles at once: earnings power, comparable sales, and hard floors or ceilings like scrap and replacement cost. Use the simple workflow and calculators below to turn scattered data into a tight price range you can defend.
Goal
Triangulate a defendable value range from earnings, comps, and floors using only public data.
Requirements
Size class, build year, fuel setup, scrubber, class, last SS/DD dates, recent fixtures, visible sales, scrap price, newbuild quotes.
30-minute workflow
1) Spec & docs → 2) Floors/ceilings → 3) Earnings anchor → 4) Comp triangulation → 5) Adjustments → 6) Range.
Step 1: Nail the spec before the math
Value shifts a lot with age, fuel system, eco design, tank coatings, ice class, and survey timing. Write these down first so your anchors compare like for like.
- Class and flag, yard, build year, DWT, beam, draft
- Coated or uncoated, pumps, heating, ice class
- Eco design, scrubber, dual-fuel or conventional
- Last SS/DD dates and due windows
- Recent vetting approvals and notable fixtures
Pick comps within similar age, spec, and survey status. If you must stretch, adjust in the calculator later.
Step 2: Set your hard floors and soft ceilings
Scrap gives a floor. Replacement cost gives a soft ceiling. These bookend the range and keep you honest before earnings and comps.
Estimated scrap floor: $10,000,000
Straight-line replacement anchor: $0
This is a soft ceiling. Premium specs or hot markets can push above it.
Step 3: Earnings anchor from unlevered yield
Convert expected cash flow into a price using a simple target yield. This avoids arguing about “cheap” or “expensive.”
Implied value from yield: $0
- Use a realistic twelve-month TCE average for the route mix.
- Check sensitivity by trying plus or minus two thousand on TCE and two points on yield.
- Keep a note of any charter cover that stabilizes cash flow.
Step 4: Triangulate with comparable sales
Use three comps and adjust for age, survey status, and special features. Small, consistent adjustments beat guessing a big number.
| Comp | Sale price ($m) | Age diff (yrs) | SS/DD adj ($m) | Feature adj ($m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp A | ||||
| Comp B | ||||
| Comp C |
Adjusted comp average: $0m
Positive age diff means comp is older than target; negative means newer.
- Fresh SS/DD within 6 months can add value. Overdue work subtracts estimated yard bill plus off-hire.
- Scrubber or dual-fuel can add a premium if the route mix benefits.
- Icy trades and special notations can widen the buyer pool.
Step 5: Apply condition, cover, and risk adjustments
Now tune the anchors with small, transparent adjustments so your range fits the actual ship in front of you.
Step 6: Combine anchors into a value range
Enter the anchors from above and apply your small adjustments. The tool gives you a low, mid, and high point you can defend.
Low (floor + adj): $0m
Mid (weighted): $0m
High (comp/repl + adj): $0m
Default weights: 40% earnings, 40% comps, 20% replacement. Tweak as you like.
Speed tips for public data
- Use public fixtures roundups and broker reports to estimate typical TCE by lane and size.
- Search news and exchange filings for recent sales near your spec to seed the comps table.
- Check recycling yard bulletins for indicative scrap prices and LDT ranges by class.
- Scan ship databases for SS/DD dates and filter your comps by similar survey timing.
This 30-minute method will not replace a full inspection or private data, but it gives you a solid, transparent range that blends cash generation, market prints, and hard floors. Save your inputs with sources, rerun them when rates or scrap move, and tighten the range as you confirm surveys and fixtures. Over time, a consistent process like this makes your bids cleaner and your exits easier to explain.
