Selling intent leaks into AIS if you know where to look. Owners rarely hang a “for sale” sign; instead you’ll see subtle behavior shifts—yard-gravity, odd bunkering, anchorage patterns, class/flag shuffles, and slow “delivery-corridor” drifts. Below is a field guide (with a mini scoring widget) to help you read those signals, separate noise from intent, and move first.
🧭 Setup: Build a Watchlist and Baseline
Fleet scope
Shortlist ships by segment, age band, and flag/class.
Track: MMSI, IMO, name, flag, class society, owner/manager, last five ports, typical trade lane, average speed, time-at-anchorage, drydock history.
Baseline
Log 30–90 days of “normal” per ship: weekly port rhythm, average ballast ratio, speeds, and bunkering cadence.
The game is deviation spotting, not one-off events.
📍 Signal 1 — Yard-Gravity Drifts
Ships destined for sale often “orbit” repair yards or retrofitting hubs without firm jobs on AIS.
How to check: Look for slow repositioning to yard clusters and multiple short stops within 50–100 nm over 7–21 days.
Action: Prepare presale questions on recent steel work, coatings, and machinery overhauls; request yard slot confirmation or job cards.
⚓ Signal 2 — Prolonged Anchorage with Hot Engine Hours
Extended anchorage near key hubs, but with frequent AIS status flips or generator load patterns, can suggest survey, buyer inspections, or paperwork.
How to check: Consecutive anchorage >7–10 days near broker/buyer hubs; repeated short moves anchorage↔outer roads.
Action: Ask for inspection windows and presale data room access; line up your surveyor early.
⛽ Signal 3 — Odd Bunkering Just Before a “Pause”
Top-off bunkers followed by a slow period can indicate prepping for delivery trials or repositioning to buyer inspection.
How to check: Bunkering out of cadence, then speed drops and short hops; sometimes a quick lube delivery appears too.
Action: Price in delivery fuel reconciliation; clarify bunkers on board terms in the MOA.
🏁 Signal 4 — Flag/Class/Callsign Shuffle
Pre-sale paperwork sometimes triggers changes in flag, callsign, or class society touch-and-go visits.
How to check: Recent arrivals at class survey ports; AIS metadata updates; class surveyors’ common ports in the track.
Action: Request evidence of class items closed and any Condition of Class; map remaining recommendations to price.
🔁 Signal 5 — Voyage-to-Nowhere Loops
Circling patterns or repeated short test legs near coastal waters often accompany sea trials or inspection runs.
How to check: Repeated 10–40 nm loops at steady RPM, then returns to same anchorage.
Action: Ask for trial curves, vibration/MEP logs, and any engine fault histories.
📦 Signal 6 — Ballast/Laden Ratio Breaks
Shifts to unusually high ballast days suggest the ship is off-hire and being positioned for viewings or delivery.
How to check: Ballast share +25–40% vs baseline over the last 2–3 weeks.
Action: Validate off-hire periods and maintenance logs; adjust valuation for idle wear and tear.
🛰️ Signal 7 — AIS Metadata Churn or Silences
Name tweaks, destination set to “orders,” or brief AIS gaps near known yards may coincide with cosmetic works or inspections.
Note: AIS silences can be benign. Corroborate with port agent intel before drawing conclusions.
Action: Request continuous logbooks covering any AIS gaps; verify no compliance issues.
🧹 Signal 8 — Pre-Sale Cleaning & Cosmetics
Quick calls at cleaning facilities or hull-wash anchorages are classic “make-ready” tells.
How to check: Short yard stays tagged as “hull clean,” “prop polish,” “UWILD,” followed by photo requests from owner.
Action: Ask for before/after photos and diver reports; tie performance claims to price discussions.
🧮 How to Turn Signals into a Score
Tick what you observe and get a quick “sale likelihood” nudge. Treat this as a triage tool, not gospel.
Score: 0
Select signals and click “Calculate Score”.
🧪 Debunking False Positives
Weather diversions can mimic loops and idling. Cross-check regional forecasts and pilotage notices.
Congestion near bunkering hubs can look like “yard-gravity.” Compare with other ships’ behavior same week.
Regulatory surveys are cyclical. If the timing matches 5-year/ILC windows, weight it lower as a sale tell.
Charter redeliveries explain ballast spikes. Verify charter fixtures ending within the last 14–30 days.
📞 Outreach Playbook Once You Suspect a Sale
Open with specifics and request exactly what shortens time-to-close.
Ask for: latest class status, CoC items, last drydock report, engine running hours, hull/prop maintenance, MEMO/LOA, and known liens.
Offer: proof of funds, your preferred inspection window, and a proposed MOA template with clear bunker settlement and delivery location.
🧰 Simple Daily Workflow
- Pull yesterday’s tracks for your watchlist; flag deviations vs baseline.
- Tag any ship with two or more fresh signals and run the score.
- If score ≥5, assemble a one-page brief with screenshots and port notes.
- Ping known brokers/agents at the nearest likely yard; request soft guidance.
- Prepare inspection team availability and travel quotes in advance.
⚖️ Compliance & Ethics Notes
Use AIS and port intel responsibly. Avoid any attempt to interfere with operations or obtain non-public data improperly. Document your sources, keep a dated audit trail of signals, and respect local regulations around data use and approach.
