Survey vs Sell Decision Grid Calculator
Posted inSeller's Guide Selling Ships

Survey vs Sell Decision Grid Calculator

The hardest part of the “survey vs sell” decision is not the survey itself, it is pricing uncertainty, downtime risk, and the fact that buyers discount the ship the moment they see a big dock on the horizon. This tool turns that into a simple decision grid you can defend internally, then stress tests the one thing that ruins most plans, scope creep.

Survey vs Sell Decision Grid Calculator

Compare two choices with the same discipline you would use in a financing memo: sell now versus keep through survey and continue earning. Then stress test scope creep, downtime expansion, and resale haircut so you can see the moment the math flips.

🧮 Keep vs sell NPV
🛠️ Scope creep stress test
⏱️ Downtime and delay impact
🧾 Buyer discount lens
🔁 Exit haircut sensitivity
Inputs
Enter assumptions you can defend in a real deal conversation
Transparent model, no black box
The tool builds two value paths: Sell now equals your estimated sale price today (with a discount for survey visibility, floored at scrap). Keep and survey equals earnings until the survey, minus off-hire earnings loss, minus survey capex, plus post-survey resale value. Future cash is discounted using your rate to reflect time and uncertainty.

Decision timing and earnings

Sale price today and floors

Buyer discount is the haircut you expect because a major dock is visible. Post-survey uplift is the resale value improvement after fresh class reduces immediate uncertainty.

Survey scope band (capex proxy)

Scope band guidance and scope creep defaults
Scope band sets a default scope creep behavior for the stress test. You can override the capex estimate directly.
Band Risk shape Common failure mode Default stress behavior
Light Small variance, timing risk still exists Delays from parts, yard congestion, inspections Capex +15%, off-hire +20%
Medium Findings can expand once systems are opened Worklist expands after opening up systems Capex +30%, off-hire +35%
Heavy Uncertainty dominates and schedule slippage gets expensive Scope creep plus re-work and class-driven adds Capex +50%, off-hire +60%
Use this as a discipline tool
The output depends on your assumptions. The value comes from surfacing which assumption is doing the heavy lifting, then pricing or structuring that risk in the deal.
Sell now value (today)
—
Sale price today minus expected buyer discount, floored at scrap.
Keep and survey NPV (today)
—
Earnings to survey, minus downtime loss, minus capex, plus discounted resale.
Decision margin —
Positive means keep and survey is ahead on your assumptions. Negative means sell now is ahead.
Recommendation
—
—
Line item Sell now Keep and survey Deal impact
————
Scope creep stress test (the moment the math flips)
This stress test expands capex and off-hire based on your scope band, then shows break-even points: how much extra capex or downtime it takes for sell now to become the better decision.

Stress controls (optional overrides)

Leave capex and off-hire stress blank to use scope band defaults. Exit haircut reduces post-survey resale value. Earnings shock reduces your daily earnings assumption.
Stressed keep and survey NPV
—
Keep NPV under scope creep and exit assumptions.
Break-even points
—
How much it takes for the decision to flip.